Australia’s fire season does not look the same everywhere. AFAC’s Spring 2026 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook, released on 19 August, identifies increased bushfire risk in parts of seven states and territories. For households and travellers, it is a reminder to understand local conditions and prepare early.

Where is the risk higher?

The outlook covers September to November 2026, with elevated risk identified across:

• Northern and southeastern New South Wales.

• Southeast Queensland.

• Northeastern Tasmania.

• Parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.

• Large parts of the Northern Territory.

These findings apply to particular regions, rather than every location within each state or territory. The spring outlook also should not be treated as a forecast for the entire summer.

What is driving the increased risk?

Different regions face different conditions. Low soil moisture is contributing to increased risk in parts of NSW and Queensland. Across Central Australia and areas of the Northern Territory, increased vegetation fuel loads are a major concern.

Below-average rainfall has increased risk in northeast and eastern Tasmania and parts of Victoria. In parts of Western Australia, dry soils and above-average fuel loads are combining to raise fire potential. The outlook brings together these factors with rainfall, temperature and climate forecasts.

What do the findings actually tell us?

The outlook assesses seasonal fire potential. It does not predict exactly where fires will start, and “increased risk” should not be read as a specific percentage chance of your property being affected. Weather, vegetation and other local factors all influence the assessment.

Equally, a normal outlook does not mean no risk. Bushfires can still occur outside the highlighted areas, so everyone living, working or travelling in bushfire-prone areas should remain informed and follow local emergency service advice.

How can you prepare?

Start with a household bushfire plan. Decide when you will leave, where you will go, how you will get there and what you will take. Include anyone who may need extra help.

Prepare your property by clearing gutters, maintaining grass and removing dead vegetation. These tasks matter even if your plan is to leave early.

Use the AFAC spring outlook and regional maps to understand the broader picture, then check daily Fire Danger Ratings and local emergency warnings throughout the season. A seasonal outlook helps you prepare; current local information helps you act.